A new report modelling the worst plausible bushfire consequences through to 2050 will be released today and will be used to drive prevention, preparedness and community resilience investment.
The State Bushfire Coordination Committee (SBCC) will today release the State Bushfire Risk Assessment (SBRA) - South Australia's first statewide, evidence-based assessment of future bushfire risks.
The SBRA maps potential bushfire impacts across communities, infrastructure, the economy, ecology, and public services, providing CFS and partner agencies with a clear, evidence-based foundation to target prevention and preparedness where it will make the greatest difference.
Being launched at the National Hazards Research Forum at the National Wine Centre, the assessment will drive more targeted investment in community protection.
Using consequence-focused fire behaviour modelling, the assessment identifies where adaptive management and forward planning can deliver the greatest reduction in harm to South Australians.
The SBRA uses Phoenix RapidFire and SPARK fire behaviour modelling under high-emission climate projections to map maximum plausible bushfire footprints and overlay exposure data for people, assets, and ecosystems.
The scenarios are exploratory - they illustrate plausible extreme events out to 2050, not predictions of what will definitely happen.
The assessment aligns with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Australia's Second National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction, and meets South Australia's State statutory obligations for bushfire risk management.
The SBRA is designed as a living instrument, updated regularly as new data and modelling capabilities emerge.
It will directly inform the next State Bushfire Management Plan and complements the current Bushfire Management Area Plan (BMAP) project, which measures shorter-term bushfire risk across the State.
The State Bushfire Risk Assessment is available for viewing at sbcc.sa.gov.au.
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Attributable to Rhiannon Pearce
This assessment provides the evidence emergency services need to prioritise prevention and protect communities. Enabling resilience now will saves lives, livelihoods, and recovery costs in the future.
By better understanding hazards, exposure, resilience, and capacity, the SBRA will equip households, councils, emergency services and State agencies with the information needed for risk informed investment, planning and preparedness.
Attributable to Brett Loughlin AFSM, SBCC Chair and CFS Chief Officer
The SBRA will sharpen the focus of CFS capability and community preparedness programs.
As the State's bushfire hazard lead, CFS will use the SBRA to target capability uplift and community preparedness where they will make the biggest difference.
This assessment gives us the evidence base to plan with confidence for the fire threat our communities will face in the decades ahead.
