New climate modelling shows South Australia is in for hotter days more often, declining rain but with heavier falls, and more severe fire conditions.
The Department for Environment and Water’s latest Guide to Climate Projections for Risk Assessment and Planning in South Australia shows the likely effects of climate change by modelling different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
The concerning projections indicate increases in maximum, minimum and average temperatures, and a decline in average annual rain despite a greater frequency of extreme falls.
The guide provides a summary of the likely changes to key climate variables, such as temperature, rainfall, evapotranspiration, days of severe fire danger and sea level rises under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
It draws on the most up-to-date climate change projections for South Australia and will be used by governments, businesses and communities to prepare for climate change.
The high-quality and accessible climate information can be used for climate change risk assessment, adaptation planning and community engagement.
Climate trends projected for South Australia to 2050 indicate:
- Higher temperatures
- Warmer spring temperatures
- Hotter and more frequent hot days
- Declining rainfall
- Lower spring rainfall
- More intense heavy rainfall events
- More dangerous fire weather
A mid-range scenario is representative of a global temperature increase of 1.9 oC to 2.9 oC by 2100 (compared with 1986-2005), while a high-range scenario represents a 3.6 oC to 5 oC global increase over the same period.
Statistical tables for Adelaide and nine regional South Australian towns, along with statewide maps, provide an in-depth analysis on projected climate variables to 2030, 2050 and, for the first time, 2090. These are provided for both a mid-range and high-range emissions scenario.
The report further vindicates the Malinauskas government’s plan to build a green hydrogen plant that will harness wind and solar energy to generate clean power.
The new modelling comes as Deputy Premier and Climate Minister Susan Close attends the UN’s Conference of the Parties (COP27), the largest international gathering on climate action and reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.
Dr Close will promote South Australia as a place to invest in clean and sustainable energy and will brief delegates on our state’s green hydrogen plant.
The Australian government has announced it will seek to host COP31 and South Australia will actively support that bid.
Our world-leading intermittent renewable energy profile makes South Australia a great location as a potential host city.
Quotes
attributable to Joe Szakacs
These projections reinforce why the State Government declared a climate emergency and why South Australia can’t afford to wait any longer on real climate change action.
They further highlight the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through our hydrogen jobs plan, which will accelerate SA’s renewable energy industry.
Computer-modelled climate projections are the best information we have available to help the government, industries and communities to plan for our future.
The time for climate change action is now and it is incumbent upon us all to support businesses and the community to adapt and reduce emissions.
